Predicting venous thromboembolism in multiple myeloma: development and validation of the IMPEDE VTE score.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common cause of morbidity and mortality among patients with multiple myeloma (MM). The International Myeloma Working Group (IMWG) developed guidelines recommending primary thromboprophylaxis, in those identified at high-risk of VTE by the presence of risk factors. The National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) has adopted these guidelines; however, they lack validation. We sought to develop and validate a risk prediction score for VTE in MM and to evaluate the performance of the current IMWG/NCCN guidelines. Using 4446 patients within the Veterans Administration Central Cancer Registry, we used time-to-event analyses to develop a risk score for VTE in patients with newly diagnosed MM starting chemotherapy. We externally validated the score using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, End Results (SEER)-Medicare database (N = 4256). After identifying independent predictors of VTE, we combined the variables to develop the IMPEDE VTE score (Immunomodulatory agent; Body Mass Index ≥25 kg/m2 ; Pelvic, hip or femur fracture; Erythropoietin stimulating agent; Dexamethasone/Doxorubicin; Asian Ethnicity/Race; VTE history; Tunneled line/central venous catheter; Existing thromboprophylaxis). The score showed satisfactory discrimination in the derivation cohort, c-statistic = 0.66. Risk of VTE significantly increased as score increased (hazard ratio 1.20, P = <.0001). Within the external validation cohort, IMPEDE VTE had a c-statistic of 0.64. For comparison, when evaluating the performance of the IMWG/NCCN guidelines, the c-statistic was 0.55. In summary, the IMPEDE VTE score outperformed the current IMWG/NCCN guidelines and could be considered as the new standard risk stratification for VTE in MM.

Safety and Efficacy of New Anticoagulants for the Prevention of Venous Thromboembolism After Hip and Knee Arthroplasty: A Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common and potentially fatal complication of arthroplasty. METHODS: We reviewed randomized trials to determine which anticoagulant has the best safety and efficacy in hip and knee arthroplasty patients. We searched PubMed, MEDLINE, and EMBASE through January 2016. RESULTS: Compared to enoxaparin (most commonly dosed 40 mg once daily), the relative risk (RR) of VTE was lowest for edoxaban 30 mg once daily (0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.32-0.75), fondaparinux 2.5 mg once daily (0.53; 95% CI, 0.45-0.63), and rivaroxaban 10 mg once daily (0.55; 95% CI, 0.46-0.66), and highest for dabigatran 150 mg once daily (1.19; 95% CI; 0.98-1.44). The RR of major/clinically relevant bleeding was lowest for apixaban 2.5 mg twice daily (0.84; 95% CI; 0.70-0.99) and highest for rivaroxaban (1.27; 95% CI, 1.01-1.59) and fondaparinux (1.64; 95% CI, 0.24-11.35). Fondaparinux was the only agent that was more effective than enoxaparin 30 mg twice daily (VTE RR = 0.58; 95% CI, 0.43-0.76). CONCLUSION: With the possible exception of apixaban, newer anticoagulants that lower the risk of postoperative VTE increase bleeding.

Effect of VKORC1 haplotypes on transcriptional regulation and warfarin dose.

BACKGROUND: The management of warfarin therapy is complicated by a wide variation among patients in drug response. Variants in the gene encoding vitamin K epoxide reductase complex 1 (VKORC1) may affect the response to warfarin. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of European-American patients receiving long-term warfarin maintenance therapy. Multiple linear-regression analysis was used to determine the effect of VKORC1 haplotypes on the warfarin dose. We determined VKORC1 haplotype frequencies in African-American, European-American, and Asian-American populations and VKORC1 messenger RNA (mRNA) expression in human liver samples. RESULTS: We identified 10 common noncoding VKORC1 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and inferred five major haplotypes. We identified a low-dose haplotype group (A) and a high-dose haplotype group (B). The mean (+/-SE) maintenance dose of warfarin differed significantly among the three haplotype group combinations, at 2.7+/-0.2 mg per day for A/A, 4.9+/-0.2 mg per day for A/B, and 6.2+/-0.3 mg per day for B/B (P<0.001). VKORC1 haplotype groups A and B explained approximately 25 percent of the variance in dose. Asian Americans had a higher proportion of group A haplotypes and African Americans a higher proportion of group B haplotypes. VKORC1 mRNA levels varied according to the haplotype combination. CONCLUSIONS: VKORC1 haplotypes can be used to stratify patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-dose warfarin groups and may explain differences in dose requirements among patients of different ancestries. The molecular mechanism of this warfarin dose response appears to be regulated at the transcriptional level.

Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy improves long-term survival in patients with unexplained syncope, cardiomyopathy, and a negative electrophysiologic study.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the long-term outcomes of patients with unexplained syncope, ischemic or nonischemic cardiomyopathy, and a negative electrophysiologic study (EPS). BACKGROUND: EPS is frequently performed to evaluate syncope in patients with left ventricular dysfunction. Limited long-term data evaluating all-cause mortality in patients with no inducible arrhythmia or examining the potential benefits from implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy are available. METHODS: We evaluated 102 consecutive patients with unexplained syncope, cardiomyopathy, and a negative EPS from September 1996 to December 2000. A blinded matched case-control analysis utilized 51 of these patients (19 treated with an ICD and 32 matched controls treated with conventional therapy). We compared primary endpoint of death and documented cardiac arrest of patients treated with ICD therapy to matched controls. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics were similar between groups. There were 14 primary events among the study population during a follow-up period of 44.3 +/- 20 months: 2 in the ICD group and 12 in the conventional therapy group. The hazard ratio for the risk of event in the ICD group compared with the conventional therapy group was 0.18 (95% confidence interval, 0.04-0.85; P = .04). Other comorbid conditions, including age, sex, ischemic etiology of heart failure, ejection fraction, and antiarrhythmic use, did not predict outcome. Appropriate ICD shocks occurred in 26% of patients at 2 years. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that empiric ICD therapy improves long-term outcomes in patients with unexplained syncope, ischemic or nonischemic cardiomyopathy, and negative EPS.

Costs and effectiveness of ximelagatran for stroke prophylaxis in chronic atrial fibrillation.

CONTEXT: Recent trials have found that ximelagatran and warfarin are equally effective in stroke prevention for patients with atrial fibrillation. Because ximelagatran can be taken in a fixed, oral dose without international normalized ratio monitoring and may have a lower risk of hemorrhage, it might improve quality-adjusted survival compared with dose-adjusted warfarin. OBJECTIVE: To compare quality-adjusted survival and cost among 3 alternative therapies for patients with chronic atrial fibrillation: ximelagatran, warfarin, and aspirin. DESIGN: Semi-Markov decision model. PATIENTS: Hypothetical cohort of 70-year-old patients with chronic atrial fibrillation, varying risk of stroke, and no contraindications to anticoagulation therapy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs in US dollars. RESULTS: For patients with atrial fibrillation but no additional risk factors for stroke, both ximelagatran and warfarin cost more than 50,000 dollars per QALY compared with aspirin. For patients with additional stroke risk factors and low hemorrhage risk, ximelagatran modestly increased quality-adjusted survival (0.12 QALY) at a substantial cost (116,000 dollars per QALY) compared with warfarin. For ximelagatran to cost less than 50,000 dollars per QALY it would have to cost less than 1100 dollars per year or be prescribed to patients who have an elevated risk of intracranial hemorrhage (>1.0% per year of warfarin) or a low quality of life with warfarin therapy. CONCLUSION: Assuming equal effectiveness in stroke prevention and decreased hemorrhage risk, ximelagatran is not likely to be cost-effective in patients with atrial fibrillation unless they have a high risk of intracranial hemorrhage or a low quality of life with warfarin.

The management of anticoagulants in the periendoscopic period for patients with atrial fibrillation: a decision analysis.

PURPOSE: The management of patients who undergo endoscopy while being treated with warfarin is challenging. We used decision analysis to determine the preferred strategy to manage anticoagulants in the periendoscopic period. METHODS: We designed a Markov model to estimate costs and quality-adjusted survival during a 10-year period in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation undergoing screening colonoscopy. We compared six alternatives to the continue-warfarin strategy, which was to perform colonoscopy while the patient was taking full-dose warfarin. The hold-warfarin strategy was to stop warfarin 5 days before the colonoscopy. The repeat endoscopy strategy was to continue warfarin for a diagnostic colonoscopy, followed by a repeat procedure after cessation of warfarin if polypectomy was required. The dose-reduction strategy was to reduce the warfarin dose before colonoscopy. The low molecular weight heparin strategy was to administer subcutaneous low molecular weight heparin for 2 days before and 2 days after colonoscopy. The unfractionated heparin strategy was to administer intravenous unfractionated heparin for 2 days before and 2 days after the procedure. The vitamin K strategy was to hold warfarin for 4 days and to administer vitamin K if the international normalized ratio (INR) exceeded 2.0 the day before the procedure, or low molecular weight heparin if the INR was less than 1.5. RESULTS: For screening colonoscopy, assuming that polyps would be removed in 35% of examinations, the hold-warfarin and dose-reduction arms were both cost-effective strategies. The hold-warfarin arm was most cost-effective if the likelihood of polypectomy exceeded 60%, or if there was a low risk of stroke despite atrial fibrillation. The continue-warfarin strategy was preferred if the probability of polypectomy was 1% or less. CONCLUSION: Temporary warfarin cessation or halving the warfarin dose for several days before endoscopy was the preferred strategy for most patients. Periendoscopic heparin therapy was not cost-effective for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.